Beat And Battered

Time for another get together. Mark your calendars, cancel your trips, and tell the inlaws to buzz off.

This Saturday, August 2nd at 5pm
Shannon Rose - http://www.theshannonrose.com/
98 Kingsland Road, Clifton NJ

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This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From Standard and Poor’s:

Record Low Annual Declines Recorded in May 2008 for the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices

Data through May 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show annual declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States generally continued to worsen in May 2008. For the second straight month, all 20 MSAs posted annual declines, nine of which are posting record lows and 10 of which are in double-digits. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite are reporting record low annual declines.

Data junkies can find the underlying index data here:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices - May 2008 (XLS)

From CNBC:

Home Prices Fall in May, Erasing Four Years of Gains

Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged at a record pace in May from a year earlier, with each of the 20 regions monitored showing annual declines for a second month, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price indexes reported on Tuesday.

From Bloomberg:

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home-Price Index Fell 15.8% in May

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell at a faster pace in May, indicating the three-year housing slump has not stabilized, a private survey showed today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.8 percent from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records began in 2001, after decreasing 15.2 percent in April. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.

Stricter loan rules, rising mortgage rates and an increase in foreclosures are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing, hurting home sales. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices a shrinking job market, is weighing on consumers and the economy.

“Prices will need to fall further to help stimulate demand,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “With supply overhang still huge and mortgage financing tougher to obtain, home prices are going to decline considerably further in the quarters ahead.”

Home prices decreased 0.9 percent in May from the prior month after declining 1 percent in April, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month to month.

The index was forecast to fall 16 percent from a year earlier, after a previously reported 15.3 percent drop in the 12 months ended in April, according to the median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 14.8 percent to 17 percent.

From MarketWatch:

Home prices fall 15.8% in past year: Case-Shiller

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have fallen a record 15.8% in the past year, as prices fell in all 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller home price index, Standard & Poor’s reported Tuesday. Home prices fell 1% in May compared with April. Prices in seven cities are down more than 20% in the past year.

From the AP:

S&P: Home prices drop by record 15.8 pct. in May

A closely watched housing index shows home prices fell by the steepest rate ever in May, as the housing slump continued to deepen nationwide.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index, released Tuesday, is off 15.8 percent for May compared with a year ago, a record decline since its inception in 2000. The narrower 10-city index has fallen 16.9 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw price gains in May, the second straight month that’s happened. The monthly indices have not recorded an overall home price increase in any month since August 2006.

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From the WSJ:

Lawmakers Agree on Outline of Big Housing Pact
Bill Includes Relief For Fannie, Freddie; Tense Negotiations
By MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN and DAMIAN PALETTA
July 23, 2008; Page A3

House and Senate leaders have largely hammered out a compromise deal on a mammoth housing package that would permit the government to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an emergency, overhaul supervision of the housing-finance giants and allow the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages.

The deal comes after tense negotiations and is likely to remain a source of contention when the House of Representatives votes Wednesday. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday that a temporary measure to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost the government as much as $25 billion. And despite repeated White House veto threats, lawmakers plan to include a $4 billion program that would allow local governments to buy and rehabilitate foreclosed properties.

It remained unclear whether the White House would follow through on veto threats, particularly because administration officials have actively lobbied in support of major provisions.

“It’s a lengthy bill and we’re reviewing the language,” White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. “It’s clear that the Democrats chose to play politics with the legislation, and unfortunate that they’re doing it with legislation that will prevent systemic risk to our financial system.”

The bill is expected to easily pass the House and will likely pass the Senate. Many Democrats and Republicans have said fears about the fragile state of the financial markets necessitate action, and this bill is likely to be Congress’s most expansive attempt to address the nation’s housing woes this year.

“Nobody in America will agree with everything that is in this bill, but I think enough people in America will find it acceptable, so it will go to the president’s desk to be signed,” House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) said.
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Lawmakers plan to raise the public-debt limit as part of the legislation to $10.6 trillion from $9.8 trillion. Congress must vote to increase the limit to account for additional borrowing, something it is loath to do, although it would have had to take that step this year even without the rescue plan for Fannie and Freddie, Democratic aides said.

Happy Recession Hour GTG (Get Together)
Friday, July 18th 5:30pm
Johnny Utah’s ( http://www.johnnyutahs.com )
25 West 51st Street, NY

Cancel your f’n plans, I don’t want to hear excuses.

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This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

From Newsday:

Forecast says NJ in recession until early 2010

New Jersey is more than a half-year into a mild recession that should end in early 2010, according to a Rutgers University economic forecast released Wednesday.

The state will lose about 20,000 jobs beyond the 10,000 already lost this year before a recovery begins, said the semiannual report of the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service.

The report appears to be the first analysis to claim that New Jersey is in recession and describe its breadth and magnitude.

“The state’s job base has barely changed since the beginning of 2006, while employment in the U.S. continued to grow until December 2007,” said Nancy Mantell, the service’s director.
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A recession is generally considered two consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product, so confirmation occurs after a recession has started. No such measure is available for New Jersey, so the Rutgers assessment is based largely on job losses, Mantell said.

New figures Wednesday from the state Labor Department presented an even harsher picture than the Rutgers report, finding that New Jersey lost 14,100 jobs in the first half of the year.
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The report comes as residents of New Jersey and the nation cope with growing unemployment, rising prices for gasoline and food, but falling prices for real estate.

“Things are going to be a little tight for a while. But compared to the national recession, we don’t think this will be as bad,” Mantell said.

Gov. Jon S. Corzine and others have said the nation has already entered a recession. The acting chief of the governor’s Office of Economic Growth, Angie McGuire, on Wednesday said the administration has taken steps to address tough conditions, including cutting spending in the state budget that took effect July 1.

From the Asbury Park Press:

Experts forecast a recession

New Jersey’s economy, struggling with soaring energy costs and a faltering housing market, is headed for a mild recession that will last until 2010, Rutgers University researchers said Wednesday.

The prediction of impending job losses puts off any hope of a recovery in the real estate market. Housing prices are expected to fall 12 percent to 15 percent during the next year, experts said.

“I wish the outlook were otherwise,” said Patrick J. O’Keefe, a director at J.H. Cohn, an accounting firm, and the former chief executive officer of the New Jersey Builders Association. “But the laws of gravity that govern the relationship between household income and home prices can only be suspended for so long.”
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The outlook is grim. Nancy Mantell, director of the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service, said she expects the state to fall into a recession later this year that will last about nine quarters — into 2010 — and cause it to lose about 31,000 jobs.